Friday, April 27, 2007

Today's trade -- BIDU

I had fun today day trading BIDU and felt I learned a little bit. I shall write more about this later today.

BIDU had a good ER Thursday after market close (beat estimate in revenue and profit). Shares advanced as much as more than 20% after close (109.37 to 131.xx). It gapped up Friday morning with an open price of 130.42 and went up to as high as 132.8 in the first hour of trading. But it was overdone. Based on the historic price movement before/after ER for this one, I just don't think that it will stay above 125 for too long or to make a new 52-week high this fast. This is my number 1 reason. My number 2 reason is observation from the post-ER price movement from AAPL and GOOG. They had some similarities with BIDU. One may argue that AMZN run crazy after its ER. But I think AMZN is not comparable with BIDU because (1) BIDU does not have a high short ratio as AMZN does so a short squeeze is unlikely. (2) it is obvious from the graph after the first half hour that they are not alike. (3) different business and different expectation.
Thirdly, the big market is so different from several months ago. It is over-extended and much more careful. The days are gone for a crazy price movement to the upside for a Chinese Internet ADR.

I shorted it once it is confirmed to go down without even thinking of setting up a stop limit on the upside to cut loss in case it goes against me. To be safe, I did not use margin for this trade. Looking back the chart, I feel so sorry for my poor DT skills. But I endured the rebound in the early afternoon session and managed to make a 2% gain thanks to the reasoning and a little bit planning.

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