今天看到ROBIN辛勤研究FA出的美好结果，其实也实在不算意外，因为他对这个领域技术面很了解。而且大半年跟踪了解分析。简直可以算insider了。那么如果对专业性行业不了解呢？或者想偷点懒，不那么辛苦去发掘HCL，怎么办？股版老大象神仙一样逍遥，人家说，要keep it simple.
偶要把有限的美刀，投到最好的股票上去。Keep it simple。那么哪些是最好的呢？简单点，最能涨的，或者叫最牛的。复杂一点，market leaders in the leading industries in the bull market rally. 缺一不可。
Thursday, May 31, 2007
今天OVTI太精彩了
From TA说, 和NVEC ER前的表现以及set up如出一辄。
昨天甚至今天早晨 less than 15进，到今天收盘前16出，6%~8%的利润。为sure money 。
有意思的是今天这么个大关头，在ER前夕，8点多一大早，出来个New rating,
然后forbes马上报导了这哥们的"新"rating。
昨天甚至今天早晨 less than 15进，到今天收盘前16出，6%~8%的利润。为sure money 。
Somehow, it was halted at 16.20 at 3:50pm. Weird.
Checked Yahoo Finance and found out ER news at 3:55. So MMs should know it even earlier. Without such information, then I should say 14.8x to 15.7x is sure money.
有意思的是今天这么个大关头，在ER前夕，8点多一大早，出来个New rating,
然后forbes马上报导了这哥们的"新"rating。
NEW YORK, May 31 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Robert W Baird maintain their "underperform" rating on OmniVision Technologies Inc (OVTI.NAS). The target price has been reduced from $10 to $8. In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company’s quarterly results, scheduled to be reported today, and guidance are likely to be adversely impacted by Motorola's continued weakness and excess stockpiles of CMOS image sensors. Although OmniVision Technologies’ 1.3mp camera module shipments into notebooks have been higher than expected, only marginally offsetting the weakness in the company’s mobile phone business, the analysts say. OmniVision Technologies continues to witness pricing pressure, Robert W Baird adds.
也够急的，三月份才rate过，怎么说也得等到人家ER后再看看啊。
NEW YORK, March 2 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Robert W Baird reiterate their "underperform" rating on OmniVision Technologies Inc (OVTI.NAS), while reducing their estimates for the company. The target price has been reduced from $10 to $8.In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company has reported its F3Q07 pro forma EPS in-line with the guidance. OmniVision Technologies has announced its revenue and pro forma EPS guidance for F4Q07 at $100-$110 million and $(0.06)-$0.02, respectively, short of the estimates. The company may find it challenging to return to profitability, since it has missed the 1.3 and 2mp product cycles in mobile phones and its fabless model is not appropriate for competing against Samsung and Micron, the analysts say. The EPS estimate for 2007 has been reduced from $0.63 to $0.56.
有意思的是今天MM狂卖PUT。还有意思的是CEO星期二卖了10k股at 15.02, AP, Forbes报导。Shares shorted increase to 20.2M this months from 19M last month. Shares shorted even increased 6% yesterday. Shares shorted now is about 36.78% of float and take 9 days to cover. 92.43% shares are held by 408 institutions in MRQ.
What is my take? The market is full of craps. Again, nothing is so obvious. Do not easily be fooled and swung by the noises. Do your due diligence on foundamentals to maintain an independent and strong mind.
附图两张。希望记住这个例子。
Follow-up. Again, nothing is so obvious. When retail investors are expecting short squeeze, it is unlikely to happen so easily. Revenues coming from trading in the big investment banks have increased dramatically in the past few years. This is a multi-billion dollar business. Behind each and every one stock, there are big MMs and small MMs. Just live with it.
Bullish Chinese ADRs
BIDU, MR, FMCN, EDU
These stocks stand out. What they have in common? We can list the following criteria:
1. All had increasing most recent quarterly earnings and revenues.
2. Industry leader in their fields in China with substantial market share and extensive market penetration.
3. Profit margins are high in the industry. ROEs are high.
4. Have good management team.
Nothing really fancy.
I owned each and every one of them at some point of time. But why I could not own them for long? To make matters worse, I shorted all of them except for MR. I did not gain much from the shorting either.
These stocks stand out. What they have in common? We can list the following criteria:
1. All had increasing most recent quarterly earnings and revenues.
2. Industry leader in their fields in China with substantial market share and extensive market penetration.
3. Profit margins are high in the industry. ROEs are high.
4. Have good management team.
Nothing really fancy.
I owned each and every one of them at some point of time. But why I could not own them for long? To make matters worse, I shorted all of them except for MR. I did not gain much from the shorting either.
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
Change in S&P 100, 500
In addition to WFR, S&P announced today that AAPL will join its S&P 100 index of big blue-chip companies (.OEX). And PCP will join S&P 500 (.SPX). Shares of new additions to S&P 500 often rise because funds tracking the index are required to buy stocks that enter it. PCP has risen 9% above the buy point after breaking out of the cup-and-handle at 110 about 2 weeks ago.
ETFs of my interest and 6 months % change:
Powershares Dyn Bd & Cor PKB 24.7%
Market Vectors Steel Fund SLX 42.2%
iShares S&P Latin Am 40 ILF 29.7%
ETFs of my interest and 6 months % change:
Powershares Dyn Bd & Cor PKB 24.7%
Market Vectors Steel Fund SLX 42.2%
iShares S&P Latin Am 40 ILF 29.7%
Nothing is so obvious
以前我在买卖提上经常看到庄家阴谋论，还挺不以为然。其实还是很有这么回事儿的，别的不说，光看OE日前几日股价的变化就可窥一斑。对冲基金，共同基金有自身的商业利益，自然会在允许范围能使手段使利润最大化。这也是情理之中，今天股市的走势，也是一个很好的例子，大幅低开走高，所以作为散户要有勇有谋自己拿主意。
目前市场的主题好象是“money is very available, economy is not that bad, interest might be cut”。
今天收盘前进了WFR， CROX。WFR shake得厉害。不设STOP了。WFR加入S&P 500，FUND是要买，平均交易量是6.33M，他们不会一天两天买完，6月份期指到期也快了，所以WFR在
接下来一个月内需求应该比供给多。再加上前一段的ER后的correction，向上的空间比向下的大。
CROX new high, IBD pump. Street pump. New product lines. High profit margin, high ROE in footwear industry. Accelarating earning growth.
On May 4th, CROX reported ER with "unbelievable strong sales", share jumped 19.95% to 68.85 from the closing price of 57.4 on May 3rd. Since then, CROX had about 40% run-up within the 3 weeks following the break out. According to O'Neil's principle, this kind of stock can be held for 8 weeks more. This is a living example of O'Neil's "buy high, sell higher" principle. I even shorted it several times along the way for small gains. Finally got burned today and decided to follow the trend.
另，一定要减少DT，因为没有金刚钻，不揽瓷器活。
目前市场的主题好象是“money is very available, economy is not that bad, interest might be cut”。
今天收盘前进了WFR， CROX。WFR shake得厉害。不设STOP了。WFR加入S&P 500，FUND是要买，平均交易量是6.33M，他们不会一天两天买完，6月份期指到期也快了，所以WFR在
接下来一个月内需求应该比供给多。再加上前一段的ER后的correction，向上的空间比向下的大。
CROX new high, IBD pump. Street pump. New product lines. High profit margin, high ROE in footwear industry. Accelarating earning growth.
On May 4th, CROX reported ER with "unbelievable strong sales", share jumped 19.95% to 68.85 from the closing price of 57.4 on May 3rd. Since then, CROX had about 40% run-up within the 3 weeks following the break out. According to O'Neil's principle, this kind of stock can be held for 8 weeks more. This is a living example of O'Neil's "buy high, sell higher" principle. I even shorted it several times along the way for small gains. Finally got burned today and decided to follow the trend.
另，一定要减少DT，因为没有金刚钻，不揽瓷器活。
Sunday, May 27, 2007
Looking back 7 Months
Maintaining your portfolio is just like caring for your garden. You want to keep your good plant longer to let it grow and get rid of the weed as soon as possible.
My number 1 mistake in the past 7 months in the market is to keep the weed and cut the beautiful flowers in my garden. That is why I had a 40% loss in FFHL, and 10% profit (90-99) in PCP while I could have 30% (90-118) profit if I had kept it 8 weeks longer. And PCP is still not at the top yet by today. Determing the good selling point for profit taking is hard. But the least I can do is that I should never ever have a long term loss again.
My number 2 mistake is the blindness in entering a position without considering where the stock price is at right here right now. Where is the support? Where is the resistence? Is it overbought or oversold? What is my target price on the upside? What is my stop loss price? How much is the risk/reward ratio? Is it a short term swing trade or intermediate long term holding?
Finally, Do I really know and understand the story of the company?
All of these need to be carefully considered.
My number 3 mistake is my fear of loading stock at sound support point. Everytime I saw NMX touches 118, I wanted to load but I never did. Why? I think I have my fear factor for this one since I cut loss at exactly 118 (got it on IPO day for 150 when I was a fresh fresh newbie and cut loss at 118 because I did not want a divorce because of this). I also learned to respect resistence. That is why MR retreats from 29 and FMCN could not stand above 45 for too long.
My number 4 mistake is my poor money management skill. I once had over 14 positions. What a mess! Now I gradually learned to put my eggs into a few baskets and took good care of them. I shall have no more than 8 positions. Ideally, I would like to have 5 or 6 positions with each taking 15-20% of my trading capitals.
My number 1 mistake in the past 7 months in the market is to keep the weed and cut the beautiful flowers in my garden. That is why I had a 40% loss in FFHL, and 10% profit (90-99) in PCP while I could have 30% (90-118) profit if I had kept it 8 weeks longer. And PCP is still not at the top yet by today. Determing the good selling point for profit taking is hard. But the least I can do is that I should never ever have a long term loss again.
My number 2 mistake is the blindness in entering a position without considering where the stock price is at right here right now. Where is the support? Where is the resistence? Is it overbought or oversold? What is my target price on the upside? What is my stop loss price? How much is the risk/reward ratio? Is it a short term swing trade or intermediate long term holding?
Finally, Do I really know and understand the story of the company?
All of these need to be carefully considered.
My number 3 mistake is my fear of loading stock at sound support point. Everytime I saw NMX touches 118, I wanted to load but I never did. Why? I think I have my fear factor for this one since I cut loss at exactly 118 (got it on IPO day for 150 when I was a fresh fresh newbie and cut loss at 118 because I did not want a divorce because of this). I also learned to respect resistence. That is why MR retreats from 29 and FMCN could not stand above 45 for too long.
My number 4 mistake is my poor money management skill. I once had over 14 positions. What a mess! Now I gradually learned to put my eggs into a few baskets and took good care of them. I shall have no more than 8 positions. Ideally, I would like to have 5 or 6 positions with each taking 15-20% of my trading capitals.
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
May 23, Wedensday, 2007
Market is having a rally today led by basic materials. AMZN is strong, almost assuming leadership in nasdaq recently.
Sell off began in the afternoon session after a stalling phase failing to attack 2600, triggered by Greenspan's comment about Chinese stock market. AMZN had quite a show today.
Cleared margin, raised cash and sold MR at 28.2, and FMCN at 42.9.
I am still frustrated about my skills in setting appropriate selling rules and sticking to them. I sold MR and FMCN because I was fearful of the market consolidation and wanted to lock my gains, not because I changed my views of their foundamentals.
Sell off began in the afternoon session after a stalling phase failing to attack 2600, triggered by Greenspan's comment about Chinese stock market. AMZN had quite a show today.
Cleared margin, raised cash and sold MR at 28.2, and FMCN at 42.9.
I am still frustrated about my skills in setting appropriate selling rules and sticking to them. I sold MR and FMCN because I was fearful of the market consolidation and wanted to lock my gains, not because I changed my views of their foundamentals.
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Take care of my garden
List of my positions. I am thinking about selling GLD at 3% loss.
Ticker Cost Today's Close Change Percent
HNR 10.01 9.63 -3.80%
GLD 67.54 65.22 -3.44%
RS 61.8 60.38 -2.30%
OVTI 13.6 14.65 7.72%
FDG 26.08 28.77 10.31%
PTR 117.7 129.85 10.32%
FMCN 38.45 43.46 13.03%
MR 25.23 29.03 15.06%
AAPL 96.1 113.54 18.15%
Ticker Cost Today's Close Change Percent
HNR 10.01 9.63 -3.80%
GLD 67.54 65.22 -3.44%
RS 61.8 60.38 -2.30%
OVTI 13.6 14.65 7.72%
FDG 26.08 28.77 10.31%
PTR 117.7 129.85 10.32%
FMCN 38.45 43.46 13.03%
MR 25.23 29.03 15.06%
AAPL 96.1 113.54 18.15%
Monday, May 21, 2007
ETF vs Mutual Funds
I have some extra money that I want to invest into the stock market for long term, really long term, like >30 years. Read some articles on Motley's Fool comparing ETFs and Mutual Funds. http://www.fool.com/etf/etf.htm
I am inclined to invest into ETFs. But still unclear about the tax implications. The article said that MF is less tax efficient, but I do not see how.
I am inclined to invest into ETFs. But still unclear about the tax implications. The article said that MF is less tax efficient, but I do not see how.
Market news of my interest
Hologic to acquire Cytyc for 6.2B, HOLX share down 6.32% to 53.96 intraday, CYTC up 22.28% to 42.86 intraday.
这个新闻写下来了，可是晚上在想别的事，没多想这个的，结果今天CERN就新高了，to 60。8% jump。
要好好了解行业公司间的相关性。觉得这是short-term trading的重要skill。要能想到 Company A trades with company B. Company B trades with company C, etc...
今天CERN跳高的原因是“GE and McKesson are the rumored bidders for Cerner“， 这个kansas city local的报纸说是bloomberg报告的，可是我在bloomberg野没有找到。就当有这个rumor吧。GE要用卖plastics unit了的钱买啥呢？各种猜测满天飞，早在一月12日的新闻就提到”GE may use proceeds from selling its plastics unit to buy health-care technology developers as well as energy services and equipment makers to tap faster-growing markets. “。 Health-care IT 近年增长比较快 (double digit growth industry)，GE最近3，4年在 health-care IT上的revenue probably more than doubled to $1.7 billion in 2006 from $800 million in 2003. 而GE Healthcare, which includes the world's biggest maker of medical imaging machines, reported about $17 billion in revenue for 2006. 在一月12日市场猜测的时候，CERN拒绝评论。Share jumped 5% to close at 46.88 on 01/12. 其实GE今年以来忙着已经买了不少东西了，part of Abbott's diagnostic-equipment unit for 8.12B, Smiths Group Plc's aerospace unit for $4.8 billion, drilling- equipment maker Vetco Gray Inc. for $1.9 billion and a real estate property fund in Germany for $546 million. 昨天呢，GE的plastic unit卖了好价钱了，Saudi Basic, or Sabic, will pay 11.6 B的cash (GE原来想卖10B的)。GE said ”it will have a gain of $1.5 billion, or about 15 cents a share. Sale proceeds will be used to increase the GE buyback this year by as much as $2 billion to as much as $8 billion and fund previously announced restructuring.“。结果今天市场就rumor要买CERN。
那么到底会不会买CERN呢，我觉得不大能成。CERN现在的市值是4.66B，加上573M的债务，大概至少得 >5.5B才能 拿下来。更重要的是，好象对GE没有特别的好处啊，CERN的产品看上去GE也有的差不离了。唯一的解释是GE想扩大市场占有律，抢CERN的2500多现有用户。那犯得着动这么大肝火吗。CERN是CEO Neal Patterson一手创建的，从90年的4，5毛 (adjusted price)到今天的58.8，年仅57岁，不会就想退休吧。所以我觉得这个rumor就是rumor。没有实质意义, CERN在现在这个价位我不会买就是了。
市场很八卦。追高要谨慎。
这个新闻写下来了，可是晚上在想别的事，没多想这个的，结果今天CERN就新高了，to 60。8% jump。
要好好了解行业公司间的相关性。觉得这是short-term trading的重要skill。要能想到 Company A trades with company B. Company B trades with company C, etc...
今天CERN跳高的原因是“GE and McKesson are the rumored bidders for Cerner“， 这个kansas city local的报纸说是bloomberg报告的，可是我在bloomberg野没有找到。就当有这个rumor吧。GE要用卖plastics unit了的钱买啥呢？各种猜测满天飞，早在一月12日的新闻就提到”GE may use proceeds from selling its plastics unit to buy health-care technology developers as well as energy services and equipment makers to tap faster-growing markets. “。 Health-care IT 近年增长比较快 (double digit growth industry)，GE最近3，4年在 health-care IT上的revenue probably more than doubled to $1.7 billion in 2006 from $800 million in 2003. 而GE Healthcare, which includes the world's biggest maker of medical imaging machines, reported about $17 billion in revenue for 2006. 在一月12日市场猜测的时候，CERN拒绝评论。Share jumped 5% to close at 46.88 on 01/12. 其实GE今年以来忙着已经买了不少东西了，part of Abbott's diagnostic-equipment unit for 8.12B, Smiths Group Plc's aerospace unit for $4.8 billion, drilling- equipment maker Vetco Gray Inc. for $1.9 billion and a real estate property fund in Germany for $546 million. 昨天呢，GE的plastic unit卖了好价钱了，Saudi Basic, or Sabic, will pay 11.6 B的cash (GE原来想卖10B的)。GE said ”it will have a gain of $1.5 billion, or about 15 cents a share. Sale proceeds will be used to increase the GE buyback this year by as much as $2 billion to as much as $8 billion and fund previously announced restructuring.“。结果今天市场就rumor要买CERN。
那么到底会不会买CERN呢，我觉得不大能成。CERN现在的市值是4.66B，加上573M的债务，大概至少得 >5.5B才能 拿下来。更重要的是，好象对GE没有特别的好处啊，CERN的产品看上去GE也有的差不离了。唯一的解释是GE想扩大市场占有律，抢CERN的2500多现有用户。那犯得着动这么大肝火吗。CERN是CEO Neal Patterson一手创建的，从90年的4，5毛 (adjusted price)到今天的58.8，年仅57岁，不会就想退休吧。所以我觉得这个rumor就是rumor。没有实质意义, CERN在现在这个价位我不会买就是了。
市场很八卦。追高要谨慎。
Friday, May 18, 2007
Thursday, May 17, 2007
FMCN ER Review
Posted Q1 revenue 58.1 million, up 75% from 33.1 million a year ago. Net profit 16.3 million (73.4% increase), 15c/share(50% increase, shares dilluted), compared with 9.4 million, 10c/share year ago. Excluding one-time items, profit would have been 22.7 million, or 21c/share.
Analysts' forecasts were 14c/share. Excluding stock option expenses and one-time items, analysts had predicted 19c/share (18c to 20c).
(note: This is the fifth time in a row that FMCN has beaten estimates. Stock option expenses are hei ah, eat one more penny per share than estimated ah)
Outlook:
Expects revenue for the Q2 in a range from $103 million to $107 million, excluding $9 million in sales taxes. Analysts were looking for revenue of $90.3 million, on average, with forecasts ranging from $77.0 million to $97.9 million.
Q2 net income, excluding stock-option expenses and one-time items, is expected to range from $40 million and $41 million, or 34 cents to 35 cents per fully diluted ADS. Analysts were looking for 34 cents per share (yahoo finance polled 0.30 to 0.35).
The CC had lots of questions. Most of them were well answered. I am pleased to hear that they are very confident about being the profit leader in the industry. Their old core business (commercial location network) is dominating the market, which is where the seanonality comes from according to them. The newly expanded areas have lower profit margin but still "envied" by the competitors in the segments. That is why the overall gross margin (28%) actually goes down a little bit compared with last year (28.4%). And they stressed this. They are having good business synergy with the newly acquired Allyes.
The last question in the CC was tough. Analyst questioned whether this q1 is more seasonal than q1 2006 since he sees the drop in plots sold q2q this year than q2q last year even with the discount pricing, and whether the "demand was really as strong as we were guided to expect it to be?" The company seemed to be annoyed and the reply was not as professional as I would like to hear. "I don't know where you are trying to get at in your analysis." What?? You'd better figure out.
Overall, a good quarter and good forecast. If not for OE, I think the stock should go up >3%. But with OE, I am not sure.
Analysts' forecasts were 14c/share. Excluding stock option expenses and one-time items, analysts had predicted 19c/share (18c to 20c).
(note: This is the fifth time in a row that FMCN has beaten estimates. Stock option expenses are hei ah, eat one more penny per share than estimated ah)
Outlook:
Expects revenue for the Q2 in a range from $103 million to $107 million, excluding $9 million in sales taxes. Analysts were looking for revenue of $90.3 million, on average, with forecasts ranging from $77.0 million to $97.9 million.
Q2 net income, excluding stock-option expenses and one-time items, is expected to range from $40 million and $41 million, or 34 cents to 35 cents per fully diluted ADS. Analysts were looking for 34 cents per share (yahoo finance polled 0.30 to 0.35).
The CC had lots of questions. Most of them were well answered. I am pleased to hear that they are very confident about being the profit leader in the industry. Their old core business (commercial location network) is dominating the market, which is where the seanonality comes from according to them. The newly expanded areas have lower profit margin but still "envied" by the competitors in the segments. That is why the overall gross margin (28%) actually goes down a little bit compared with last year (28.4%). And they stressed this. They are having good business synergy with the newly acquired Allyes.
The last question in the CC was tough. Analyst questioned whether this q1 is more seasonal than q1 2006 since he sees the drop in plots sold q2q this year than q2q last year even with the discount pricing, and whether the "demand was really as strong as we were guided to expect it to be?" The company seemed to be annoyed and the reply was not as professional as I would like to hear. "I don't know where you are trying to get at in your analysis." What?? You'd better figure out.
Overall, a good quarter and good forecast. If not for OE, I think the stock should go up >3%. But with OE, I am not sure.
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Gold, gold, where will you go?
Gold future for June dropped 1.9% to close at $661.50, a two months low today.I have a small position of GLD (36 shares) acquired at 67.54 a week ago. It is down (2.87%) till today.
Watched two videos from thestreets.com - the right reason to buy gold and the wrong reasons to buy gold.
The right reason to buy gold should be to hedge the uncertainty (not risk) in market, for example, catastrophic event. It is like buying a life insurance. You do not withdraw it.
The wrong reason to buy gold is to speculate a bullish trend boosted by buying from govenment central banks or weaker dollars.
en, I will think about whether I want a life insurance in the market or whether gold really can provide the life insurance.
Anyway, it still looks like a healthy pull back and I will not be particularly concerned if GLD does not penetrate 200 EMA (about 63.3) and close lower than previous low at 63. Then that will signal a sell signal with about 6% loss.
However, I might get rid of GLD earlier because I think there are better investment opportunities out there. For example, DJI.
Today's Trade
Bot SNP at 104.68 at 12.48, SLD at 105.10 45 minutes later.
SNP closed at 105.63, near day's high. Made new life-time high. The biggest oil refiner in china by capacity has been strong in recent sessions since May 11 when stock jumped from 92.5 to 100 driven by the news.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/china-may-gradually-give-up/story.aspx?guid=%7B94AEB620-590C-4AB3-90C4-70273A95D78B%7D
This is an example of momentum brought by news on stock's short-term movement. When stock jumped more than 8% last Friday on huge volume, it is OK to buy at market close near new high. Market often cannot absorb the impact of good news or bad news in one session.
This is an example of momentum brought by news on stock's short-term movement. When stock jumped more than 8% last Friday on huge volume, it is OK to buy at market close near new high. Market often cannot absorb the impact of good news or bad news in one session.
As for today, I entered the trade near new high at 104.68 soon after noon and saw the red bar immediately after my entry. That made me a little bit uneasy feeling I have bought at almost the highest point ever. I set the stop to be 104.3. But I was soon assured because if there is hesitation but no drop on big volume, then this is probably not likely to be the top. Stock resumed the uptrend after the 15 minutes pause.
A little bit imagination of how the chart will fold out is necessary for an intraday chart reader. This may be relatively easier if there is a support or resistence on the charts in longer time scale (2 weeks, 3 months and 6 month). But in case of new high (no resistence) and new low (no support), well, I think psychology plays an even bigger role. Hope I will get better at it when I gain more experience in the market.
A little bit imagination of how the chart will fold out is necessary for an intraday chart reader. This may be relatively easier if there is a support or resistence on the charts in longer time scale (2 weeks, 3 months and 6 month). But in case of new high (no resistence) and new low (no support), well, I think psychology plays an even bigger role. Hope I will get better at it when I gain more experience in the market.
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Industry spotlight -- Metal stocks
"...metal stocks keep rising as aircraft orders and construction of power plants, hotels and hospitals continue to fuel demand for scrap, processed and fabricated metal products." "Most economists expect this trend to continue. Plans to expand manufacturing capacity and power generation depend on 10- to 15-year forecasts, rather than blips in durable goods orders and short-term economic trends. Many industries are in catch-up mode."
It seems this industrial construction trend is still going on across the globe, hence, underpinning the bullish tone of global economy for 2007.
Some related stocks in the supply to production chain include:
ACH, chinese company in bauxite mining, alumina refining and aluminum smelting.
BA, commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, space flight, launch system and services. (my bus gets by the company headquarter. The employees are soooo well dressed. There is often a beggar in front of the building who makes good income :))
BW, makes an alloy of copper and beryllium used to manufacture drills to reach deep sea deposits of oil and gas.
CAT, construction, mining and forestry machinery, engines
CENX, aluminum processing
MM, metals recyclers (when pure steel is too expensive, steel fabricators use more recycled scrap metals).
HSC, provides industrial services and products to steel, construction, railways, and energy industries.
PCP, manufacture of metal components and products; and the provision of investment castings, forgings, and fasteners/fastener systems for aerospace and industrial gas turbine. (as I write, I am dismayed to find out the stock has just made new life time high today. So I watched this one run from 65 when I entered the market in October last year to 115 today, nonstop. Once held it from 90 to 98. Ahh!)
RS, metal processing, (stainless steel, tubing, titanium, etc...)
ROLL, fabricate metals, roll steel bars into ball bearings
FDG, provide coke coal to steel producer
It seems this industrial construction trend is still going on across the globe, hence, underpinning the bullish tone of global economy for 2007.
Some related stocks in the supply to production chain include:
ACH, chinese company in bauxite mining, alumina refining and aluminum smelting.
BA, commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, space flight, launch system and services. (my bus gets by the company headquarter. The employees are soooo well dressed. There is often a beggar in front of the building who makes good income :))
BW, makes an alloy of copper and beryllium used to manufacture drills to reach deep sea deposits of oil and gas.
CAT, construction, mining and forestry machinery, engines
CENX, aluminum processing
MM, metals recyclers (when pure steel is too expensive, steel fabricators use more recycled scrap metals).
HSC, provides industrial services and products to steel, construction, railways, and energy industries.
PCP, manufacture of metal components and products; and the provision of investment castings, forgings, and fasteners/fastener systems for aerospace and industrial gas turbine. (as I write, I am dismayed to find out the stock has just made new life time high today. So I watched this one run from 65 when I entered the market in October last year to 115 today, nonstop. Once held it from 90 to 98. Ahh!)
RS, metal processing, (stainless steel, tubing, titanium, etc...)
ROLL, fabricate metals, roll steel bars into ball bearings
FDG, provide coke coal to steel producer
Added MR, RS
Added MR AH yesterday at 25.23,
Set a limit buy of RS at yesterday's closing price of 61.8 last night and got filled today.
Current portfolio: stocks 85.8%, cash 8.3%, mutual funds 5.8% .
Stock positions:
AAPL
FDG
FMCN
HNR
GLD
MR
OVTI
PTR
RS
Set a limit buy of RS at yesterday's closing price of 61.8 last night and got filled today.
Current portfolio: stocks 85.8%, cash 8.3%, mutual funds 5.8% .
Stock positions:
AAPL
FDG
FMCN
HNR
GLD
MR
OVTI
PTR
RS
Monday, May 14, 2007
Mind, Method, Money Management (1)
In addition to finding the appropriate level of risk tolerance of myself and planning accordingly, a healthy and strong mind requires one to:
1. Be calm and unemotional so that you can have a plan.
2. Be brave and patient so that you can execute your plan.
Ultimately,
3. "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful".
1. Be calm and unemotional so that you can have a plan.
2. Be brave and patient so that you can execute your plan.
Ultimately,
3. "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful".
FFHL, the one stock that I cut loss at 40%
I have lots of thoughts on FFHL ever since last Friday, when the stock went down from 9.1 to 7.1. The ER came out during the session and missed expectation (profit down).
The stock was brought to my attention when it made an astounding run following its impressive IPO on Dec 19, 2006 (from 8 to 18.4 in 7 sessions). I still remember all the speculations on the Internet, mainly from Google finance: "this one is gonna be the next EFUT", well, what happened with EFUT was no coincidence. "The new China plastics Fuwei Films FFHL got score of 96.2 at the Motley Fool with a 111.14% return to date. ", "I picked this up today and think China will be a huge player in LCD screens. This offering will allow Fuwei Films to have one of the most modern manufacturing plants in the world today.") Anyway, I day traded the stocks several time in those days and made some small profits (3%, 5%, etc...). The stock was totally a monster and a newbie like me got all excited buying high selling higher. Not surprisingly, my final round in this festival turned out to be a one way trip when I had to keep 300 stocks bought at an average price of 17.9 after I cannot sell them at a profit (point A). Hehe. Mistake number 1: Day trading turns into an intermediate holding, yet I had no knowledge of the company.
It did not take me long to realize that I made a mistake. Boy, did I try to correct it! I was determined to get out even. How? Day in and day out, I watched this guy hoping the MM behind this one came to a rescue. I did catch the chance, bought at 10.xx and sold at 11.xx (point B to C). And reduced my holdings to 200 shares. But that was like playing fire and I was extremely nervous. I dare not buy too much for the short-term profit and I dare not short it for the fear of the crazy run returns for no reason. Meanwhile, I did my due dilligence searching Chinese Internet to find whatever information I could use to get a sense of how they are doing to deliver their promises. My conclusion was quite pessimistic. I had three reasons: 1. Management team was not credible. Actually, very incredible. 2. Competition is too tough. They are not really cutting edge as they claim to be (which can be seen from the long list of plastic factories and their products and the company's job posting of hiring workers for 500 yuan/month. 3. Huge debt is due soon. No development on the term negotiation with bank. And I began to really hate it and cleared my positions at 10.8 the day before Feburary 27 (point D) . Mistake number 2: Count on the MM's manipulation is really short-sighted. You may succeed once or twice, if you are lucky. But it is not worthy of it considering the risk and the huge psychological burden. Do pay attention to foundamentals and trust the foundamentals will win in the long run.
Must write it down because I sure need to remember it. I sure wish this would be the last time in my investing life that I cut loss at 40%!
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Ai ya ya, what a day.
I just said "there was no sign of reversal" yesterday. See what happens today.
Acount down 1.7% today.
Under my close monitoring is the newly opened position FDG (at 26.08).
FDG had shown support at 10 day moving average 25.3 from intraday chart.
FMCN is the one of the few that is still green today. Up 1.19 (3.21%). FMCN reports ER BH on May 17, 2007. I do expect a good ER despite the high expectation. This one a long-term holding unless it drops below the 33.4 support.
Another long-term holding AAPL holds through, closing green at 107.34 after reaching 52-week high of 108.84 today.
Commodity went down with stock. My GLD is down. Instead of re-testing the 700 resilience, GOLD retreat to 667, down 15.5.
No more word, add one pic.
Sold JMBA
at 8.84, when the trend reversal was not confirmed.
Be very cautious and keep sideline in the market.
Seems the steam has run out and a consolidation lasting longer is needed.
Retail same store sale was bad, showing low consumer confidence. Earning season is heading to an end.
Be very cautious and keep sideline in the market.
Seems the steam has run out and a consolidation lasting longer is needed.
Retail same store sale was bad, showing low consumer confidence. Earning season is heading to an end.
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
Tuesday, May 8, 2007
Today's transaction: bought FDG
The market is incredibly strong when everybody is expecting a correction. Coal company JRCC posted better than expected ER and give good guidance. Steel industry holds well in this morning's bad weather.
Bought 200 shares of FDG at 26.08 in the last trading hour.
If it goes above 27, will add 200 shares.
Target price: 29.21.
On the down side, cut loss if it closes 50cents below today's 10-day EMA 25.32-0.50=24.82.
Bought 200 shares of FDG at 26.08 in the last trading hour.
If it goes above 27, will add 200 shares.
Target price: 29.21.
On the down side, cut loss if it closes 50cents below today's 10-day EMA 25.32-0.50=24.82.
Monday, May 7, 2007
Nightly readings on FDG
Robin has recommended coal stock for the summer based on the rationale of increased demand from utility surge. FDG looks attractive from a glance: high profit margin, high ROI, and high yield, high yoy growth. Revenue and profit exploded in 2004 and 2005 but started to slow in 2006. Recent earnings in the last reporting quarter is not good either. But the response to its recent ER has been very good. So it must not be off from the expectation. And the president just said "Fording to increase shipping to make up for Q1 delay. "
Searching from IBD archive rendered two interesting articles.
First one is published on 3/1/2004, when the stock was traded at 10.
"Fording Canadian Coal Trust is the No. 2 player in the coking coal industry. Coking coal forms the substance known as coke. Mix coke with iron ore and limestone in a blast furnace, and you've got steel. ....Higher demand has led to higher prices, and heady gains for Fording's bottom line and its stock. "Coking coal had been in oversupply in global markets for a couple of decades, until about 2000, 2001," said Mark Gow, Fording's director of investor relations. "Then the supply side adjusted and markets became reasonably well balanced."Now, China's creating demand by becoming a net importer of coking coal," he said.
Article no. 2: 5/5/2005, when the stock was traded at 24.
"...Fording mines mostly metallurgical coal that goes into steel-producing blast furnaces. In the steel business, the big market is Asia-Pacific. Fording sells 45% of its production to Asian markets. While only 8% of its exports go to China, the country is the main factor in the worldwide run-up in demand. That demand has seen the world price of coal more than double since 2004. Metallurgical coal went from $56 to $57 a metric ton in 2004 to $120 to $125 today. Analyst sees coal prices falling to $95 a ton in 2006 and $70 in 2007. .... The company hedges on currency to offset the problem. Fording forged a five-year deal with Canadian Pacific Railway. The deal took effect in April 2004, removes uncertainty regarding rates and provides sufficient rail capacity to handle expansion plans at the Elk Valley Mines. Fording pays hefty sums for that security. Rail rates for 2004 were 20% higher than the prior year. Rates for 2005 and 2006 will be 60% higher than 2003, while rates for 2007 and 2008 will be tied to the price of coal. While transportation is always a concern, there are no bottlenecks right now. "
So what is my take on this stock on 05/07/2007?
Based on report released by DOE on March 23, 2007 for Q4, 2006, average price of U.S. Metallurgical Coal Exports is about 92 to Asia, 95 to Europe. So the price decreased but still not too bad.
1. Steel industry is performing very strong recently and positioned to do so for the rest of the year due to global economy growth. (Iron & Steel index up 25.67% vs 6.42% of S&P 500 YTD). The demand seems strong in year 2007. FDG is up 26.7% YTD. It correlates well with iron and steel industry.
2. Less volatile than smaller miners. No 2 player in coke coal industry. Higher profit margin and higher ROI.
3. Good management team (Hedge currency. Contract rail rates).
4. Chart support.
FDG seems to be at the upper side of the trend line at current price of 26.2. I will definitely be a buyer of FDG anywhere in 24-25 for 2-4 months holding.
Position adjustment recently
Short term stocks:
Sold all 500 shares MPEL at 17.90 last Thursday when LVS's ER failed the hope of lucrative gambling business in Macau. My MPEL shares were accumulated three times at 15.88, 16.45, and 18.10. Did not sell when the stock went above 19.00. Should've taken the >10% profit partially earlier.
Last Friday, Sold half position in OVTI at 15.05 (took 10% profit).
Last Friday, cut loss on SBUX (-3%) and bought in JMBA at 8.77 since I buy in the seasonality story and loved the chart after I see a hammer in place for that day following the prolonged downtrend.
Today, cut loss on IBKR, sold all 100 shares at 29.75 (-8% loss). GROW reported ER today, lower profit Q2Q. Investing services stocks took a hit. This is the second time I got hurt from chasing hot IPOs. Last time it was NMX at 150. Ouch!!! Ouch!!!
I still have a loser FMCN (-5% down) in my short term holdings.
Short-term holdings include:
OVTI, FMCN, FCX, JMBA
Intermediate to Long term stocks:
Sold IWS at 160.6 today (cost 153, 5% gain). Plan to buy back around 155-156 depending on the market condition. I am trying to time the market here.
Tentatively bought HNR at 10.01 with the proceeds. Will average up if it goes north. Will cut loss if it goes below 9.5. The risk/reward ratio seems ok here.
Now my intermediate-long term stocks include:
AAPL at 96.1
GLD at 67.5,
PTR at 117.71
HNR at 10.01
Sold all 500 shares MPEL at 17.90 last Thursday when LVS's ER failed the hope of lucrative gambling business in Macau. My MPEL shares were accumulated three times at 15.88, 16.45, and 18.10. Did not sell when the stock went above 19.00. Should've taken the >10% profit partially earlier.
Last Friday, Sold half position in OVTI at 15.05 (took 10% profit).
Last Friday, cut loss on SBUX (-3%) and bought in JMBA at 8.77 since I buy in the seasonality story and loved the chart after I see a hammer in place for that day following the prolonged downtrend.
Today, cut loss on IBKR, sold all 100 shares at 29.75 (-8% loss). GROW reported ER today, lower profit Q2Q. Investing services stocks took a hit. This is the second time I got hurt from chasing hot IPOs. Last time it was NMX at 150. Ouch!!! Ouch!!!
I still have a loser FMCN (-5% down) in my short term holdings.
Short-term holdings include:
OVTI, FMCN, FCX, JMBA
Intermediate to Long term stocks:
Sold IWS at 160.6 today (cost 153, 5% gain). Plan to buy back around 155-156 depending on the market condition. I am trying to time the market here.
Tentatively bought HNR at 10.01 with the proceeds. Will average up if it goes north. Will cut loss if it goes below 9.5. The risk/reward ratio seems ok here.
Now my intermediate-long term stocks include:
AAPL at 96.1
GLD at 67.5,
PTR at 117.71
HNR at 10.01
Wednesday, May 2, 2007
Mind, Method, Money Management
Kittybaby's LG fox97 said trading/investing is all about Mind, Method, and Money Management.
Let me reflect upon these three M's with my 7 months experience in the market.
As a beginner investor, I believe I have a long way to go to develop a calm and strong mind in investing. It did not take me long to figure out that I am a moderately aggressive investor. This means I am ready to tolerate the 3-5% loss for a large-cap value stock and 8%-10% downside risk for a mid-cap growth stock. And I am prepared for the 15%-20% down to my overall portfolio, which already happened last month. Although I felt very sad about the loss, I made my choice to stay invested because I believe in the long term benefit of investing in stocks and I believe winners never quit.
Let me reflect upon these three M's with my 7 months experience in the market.
As a beginner investor, I believe I have a long way to go to develop a calm and strong mind in investing. It did not take me long to figure out that I am a moderately aggressive investor. This means I am ready to tolerate the 3-5% loss for a large-cap value stock and 8%-10% downside risk for a mid-cap growth stock. And I am prepared for the 15%-20% down to my overall portfolio, which already happened last month. Although I felt very sad about the loss, I made my choice to stay invested because I believe in the long term benefit of investing in stocks and I believe winners never quit.
pre-ER runs
Traded LVS for its pre-ER run.
Entered at 86.30 May 1 with stop limit 84.90 with a target at about 87.8-88. The stock failed to rally Tuesday but you could feel it held on. Plus the big market is making a brisk turn around. Held overnight. It had a run Wedensday. Sold at 87.50 to realize 1.4% gain. Exit point was early. Staring at the bid and ask price makes me nervous. Patience ah patience.
MPEL was also up today to reflect speculation on Macau gambling industry.
NVEC is another example of pre-ER run.
Entered at 86.30 May 1 with stop limit 84.90 with a target at about 87.8-88. The stock failed to rally Tuesday but you could feel it held on. Plus the big market is making a brisk turn around. Held overnight. It had a run Wedensday. Sold at 87.50 to realize 1.4% gain. Exit point was early. Staring at the bid and ask price makes me nervous. Patience ah patience.
MPEL was also up today to reflect speculation on Macau gambling industry.
NVEC is another example of pre-ER run.
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
Stocks in a group move together, for whatever reason
I have NYT on my watch and was alerted of the abnormal price jump this morning. I checked news for NYT immediately and could not figure out why. The volume was so high that I could not resist the temptation guessing there maybe significant news, most likely M&A. I jumped in for a quick profit. No surprise, it turned out to be an emotional and reckless trade. My entry point (25.8) is again too high too late. The risk/reward ratio is way too high. I cut loss at 25.3 and shorted the same amount of position there. Covered at 24.75 to break even.
Lesson learned? Always, always think about the risk/reward ratio before acting. If I have missed the best entry point, let it go.
I later learned that sudden rise in NYT is due to the following news that is on today's headlines:
Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. offered to buy Dow Jones & Co. for $5 billion, The offer of $60 per share represents a huge premium of about 65 percent over Dow Jones' closing share price on Monday.
Yet another powerful example of how stocks move in groups.
Lesson learned? Always, always think about the risk/reward ratio before acting. If I have missed the best entry point, let it go.
I later learned that sudden rise in NYT is due to the following news that is on today's headlines:
Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. offered to buy Dow Jones & Co. for $5 billion, The offer of $60 per share represents a huge premium of about 65 percent over Dow Jones' closing share price on Monday.
Yet another powerful example of how stocks move in groups.
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