Hologic to acquire Cytyc for 6.2B, HOLX share down 6.32% to 53.96 intraday, CYTC up 22.28% to 42.86 intraday.
这个新闻写下来了,可是晚上在想别的事,没多想这个的,结果今天CERN就新高了,to 60。8% jump。
要好好了解行业公司间的相关性。觉得这是short-term trading的重要skill。要能想到 Company A trades with company B. Company B trades with company C, etc...
今天CERN跳高的原因是“GE and McKesson are the rumored bidders for Cerner“, 这个kansas city local的报纸说是bloomberg报告的,可是我在bloomberg野没有找到。就当有这个rumor吧。GE要用卖plastics unit了的钱买啥呢?各种猜测满天飞,早在一月12日的新闻就提到”GE may use proceeds from selling its plastics unit to buy health-care technology developers as well as energy services and equipment makers to tap faster-growing markets. “。 Health-care IT 近年增长比较快 (double digit growth industry),GE最近3,4年在 health-care IT上的revenue probably more than doubled to $1.7 billion in 2006 from $800 million in 2003. 而GE Healthcare, which includes the world's biggest maker of medical imaging machines, reported about $17 billion in revenue for 2006. 在一月12日市场猜测的时候,CERN拒绝评论。Share jumped 5% to close at 46.88 on 01/12. 其实GE今年以来忙着已经买了不少东西了,part of Abbott's diagnostic-equipment unit for 8.12B, Smiths Group Plc's aerospace unit for $4.8 billion, drilling- equipment maker Vetco Gray Inc. for $1.9 billion and a real estate property fund in Germany for $546 million. 昨天呢,GE的plastic unit卖了好价钱了,Saudi Basic, or Sabic, will pay 11.6 B的cash (GE原来想卖10B的)。GE said ”it will have a gain of $1.5 billion, or about 15 cents a share. Sale proceeds will be used to increase the GE buyback this year by as much as $2 billion to as much as $8 billion and fund previously announced restructuring.“。结果今天市场就rumor要买CERN。
那么到底会不会买CERN呢,我觉得不大能成。CERN现在的市值是4.66B,加上573M的债务,大概至少得 >5.5B才能 拿下来。更重要的是,好象对GE没有特别的好处啊,CERN的产品看上去GE也有的差不离了。唯一的解释是GE想扩大市场占有律,抢CERN的2500多现有用户。那犯得着动这么大肝火吗。CERN是CEO Neal Patterson一手创建的,从90年的4,5毛 (adjusted price)到今天的58.8,年仅57岁,不会就想退休吧。所以我觉得这个rumor就是rumor。没有实质意义, CERN在现在这个价位我不会买就是了。
市场很八卦。追高要谨慎。
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