炒股一年总结

好好记笔记，多观察多总结多思考慎行动的时候，收益就好，偷懒跟风，东听一句，西听一句，不知所从，混混沌沌的时候，收益就不好。这个BLOG更新的频率和账号收益率有很强关联。
从去年10月底炒股到现在，正好一年了，总结一下经验教训。


秋之皓月之炒股秘诀
不急， 不燥， 不慌，不忙
不贪， 不馋， 不骄，不傲

Project BIN

我一直想做的一件事，是做个project, 有图表，有数据库。把各个板块的相关互动性，各板块的代表性增长型股票，它们的管理者, 以及它们之间的联系(竞争者，合作者)，有点象social network或者叫business intelligence的东西。
马上就在股市混了快一年了，还是不知道几个TICKER，惭愧。
给俺这个projecct起个名叫Business Intelligence Network (BIN)，嘻嘻。

October 17, 2007

OE临近，ER季节，市场的不确定性带来intraday的volatility，正是DT的黄金时刻。
上星期四清仓以后，这两天陆陆续续, 165.8把苹果买回来了。在38.5把MR买回来了。在102.88把LFC买回来了。在1.85又把OVTI DEC25 call买回来了。 PTR是拍马也赶不上了，由它去吧。
还没有开始上margin, 整理一下，现在的portfolio是这样的：
aapl 35.58%
lfc 41.64%
mr 9.54%
ovti dec 25 call 6, 0.47%
cash 12.97%
还是那句话，承担自己能承担的风险，赚自己该赚得钱。Stay cool。

PTR的教训。

偶是10月9号在184的价位进的PTR。当时分析的理由是：(1)原油供应紧张。需求缺口大，中国要增加战略储油4倍，美国增长战略储油也是目前长期的国策，再加上美元贬值，油价将会持续上升。(2)PTR本身产量有所增加。(3)取决于现在的政治(17大即将召开)和A股火爆的场面，回归A股预期会受到很大欢迎，(神华就是例子)。(4)TA上来讲，190X新高后，受巴菲特抛售新闻的影响，缩量微幅下调。我在184。5入场，计划是30%在240左右出第一批。而且我还提醒自己，这个家伙老是跳开，不容易追，不要轻易丢了。
结果这个成了今年最大的失败。因为我在上周四，11号受大盘跳水的影响，在194卖了！！！然后这家伙12号到216，今天到242。
执行你自己的计划，承担你能承担的风险，赚你应该赚的钱。

October 3, 2007 Wed

今天ISRG出了，出早了，在早晨第一次冲高的时候238出了，因为这个股票我拿了好几天了，
看它的脾气是冲一下要歇很久。我在222.8入，231出，229入，233出，232入，今
天238出，所以还想如法炮制，这本身也没有什么错，不过贪了，挂了个买单在235.
8，没有FILL。所谓“占小便宜吃大亏”。行情来了要使劲折腾，可不是这么个折腾
法。后来涨到245。Miss掉了7个点。
今天LDK是个很生动的教训。前天48.6 out了SINA，69.3入 LDK，昨天 71.3出，本来计划600股全出的，但是临时起意，留了100股。今天想搞个DT配着把这100股摊平不赔出掉。
就在中午以为它跌不动了的时候，66.16入了200股，过了几分钟，对自己的这个计
划觉得非常怀疑，60分钟图上有H&S的样子，也算是一种market sense吧，在等待的这几分钟内，感觉开始有较大的卖单在小心地卖(比起后来的量简直微不足道了)，就在66全出了。
20多分钟内开始暴跌，到60，反弹，这时候接飞刀，DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT IT，64时形势急转直下，收盘51。如果我还是存着摊平的心，那么300多的损失就会变成4800！股市可以如此凶险。所以，如果对自己的trade有疑问，尽快出场。只挣“sure money”。
但是还是迟钝，在怀疑得到确定，neckline broken with huge volume, 形势明朗后没有买PUT或者SHORT。
后来看到新闻是说"In a research note, Piper Jaffray said it had confirmed that LDK's financial controller had recently left the company, which manufactures the wafers used in solar panels." We are also aware of the former controller's allegations of poor financial controls and a 250-tonne inventory discrepancy."News of the departure may pressure the stock short term," the note said."，是不是MM故意在十一长假中制造新闻砸盘。事件如何发展，拭目
以待。

关于选股的一些思考 (1)

ZZ
老股民的关键经验 （regsoft 原创）
发信人: regsoft (regsoft), 信区: Stock
标 题: 老股民的关键经验 （regsoft 原创）
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed May 2 18:18:49 2007)

本金最重要， 千万不能佘本。就是不要激动， 不要贪婪。 不打无把握的战。
可以放过一万个涨的机会， 不可误入一个跌的陷阱。要知道，每天股市上涨的股票千千万万， 不要因为没有买到一个股票就后悔。没有90%的把握就不要买， 要知道股市出错从来都是买的时候出的错误，（short当然是倒过来了）。现金就是你的老命，善战者不好武，历史上从来穷兵黩武的家伙都是以失败结束。股市也是一样， 不要过多的买卖交易，这样你的心就乱了。心不静就招法乱了。做股票要买之前好好的分析。大股民有内幕， 可以提前知道财务报表没有公布的数据，所以小股民一般是打不过大股民的。 可是天不绝人， 留给小股民有一条路，这也是每个细心的人都平等的机会，就是在财务报表生成以前知道公司的大概情况，这就是要了解这个行业的动态，有更前瞻的市场预计。 所以就是老将们常说的要买自己真正了解的行业的股票。 知己知彼，才能有盈利。在不知道一个公司的情况下，也要知道这个行业的大概情况。小小股民呢， 又不了解任何一个具体的行业呢？就要看比行业更大的国民经济了，在
水活的地方捕鱼，不要在沙漠里买房地产。 什么意思？ 你看什么地方、国家经济活跃， 就买他的综合指数， 比如中国（FXI）。 记住，你是小小虾米， 千万不要贪婪，要本分。 因为你的真信息是在最底层的， 只有比智慧， 就是在大局、甚大局信息－这个是没有人可以隐瞒得了得， 分析上得出的判断。所以，大股民细看公司报表，小股民细看行业情况，小小股民细看大局发展。这样看来，小小股民买基金、最好是大的面向一个国家的特定基金是最符合上述分析的。可是，要人不贪心是很难的，特别是没有钱的小小股民们，这就是为什么小小股民们在股市上输多赢少的原因了。所以上上策为买自己了结的国家基金。对于还不死心的小股民们， 近期我推荐 ACH。 INTC也很好。

他说得非常对。具体实践起来，了解行业动态，经济热点，可以有以下办法：(1). 看书读报。金融方面的要了解，更有用的信息可能在于政治经济(比如政府新政策，各个行业职能部门，比如农业，商业，医疗保险，能源等的新闻发布)，然后去想相关性。复杂一点的比如，中国基建发展 -> 钢铁供不应求 -> 供应炼钢用煤炭的公司 -> 海运公司。简单一点的比如，美元贬值 -> 金属原材料上涨。澳洲大旱+美元贬值 -> 农作物价格上涨。
(2). 认真阅读IBD的文章。了解公司到底是干什么的。属于哪个行业。公司竞争力如何。

September 27, 2007 Thur (2)

好几天以来，直到今天，中概的垃圾股暴涨。因为偶以前吃过FFHL的亏，对于这种情况敬而远之。还是踏踏实实的搞俺熟悉的这几个好了(就这还搞不惦呢)。为了以示警戒，特地把今天JRJC的图贴上。

September 27, 2007 Thur

昨天47.46接的SINA的飞刀很失败。设的48.5的sell order没有fill。本来的计划是今天观察一下，如果9 day EMA or 47确有支撑反弹再上CALL，结果早上头脑一热，上了OCT50的CALL在1.15。买了以后才去看SOHU，NTES的图，就知道至少今天是不行了。但是还舍不得割。最后把CALL在0.9仍了，留下股票，这是我首次在OPTION上赔钱，-22%。本来是先上了5个观察观察，后来看到有个小绿柱子，主观以为要反转，就又加了10个，一共15个，损失375元。下午穿破9天EMA。收盘前10分钟内成交量比较大。明天继续观察。SINA现在仍然是在SUPPORT ZONE。下一个点看20天EMA在45.74。
大牛人4波说他下个单之前要做足至少16小时的工作。大牛人C帅说要观察两周才能买。想想我的草率，看到了和牛人们遥远的距离。

又到一个季度的最后几天，不知道象上次6月底的window dressing情况还会不会出现，8月16日大底那天SINA的收盘价是36.37。涨到50是37%的涨幅。所以不排除这几天有机构卖出套利，机构会不会再买回，后市短期内是不是还再冲50，要好好看明天的情况和盘前盘后。

September 26, 2007 Wed

Dow closed today at 13,878. It is now 122 points away from the old high of 14000 on July 19. The volume is lower than yesterday as well as the three months' average.

Got rid of half position of AAPL Oct 150 Call yesterday at 7. Now the remaining half is almost cost free (average bot price was 3.58). My target for these calls is around 10.

Today's trades:

ISRG sell order was triggered at 231 (avg cost 224.8). Bought back at 229.8 when it was consolidating around 229.xx. It is a typical set up on the intraday chart preparing for a breakout. It did break out with good volume, went to attack the new high at 235. Then retreated, almost to the pre-breakout level of 229.x, finally closed at 231.31. Now my first target for this one, if it is indeed a breakout, is 238.

Bot SINA at 47.46 at closing. This one retreated from resistence 50 and corrected 5%. It looks it has found support here at approximate 9 day EMA 47.5 and last resistence of 47. If the support is confirmed tomorrow, I will change my shares to calls.

Daytraded FCX. In 103.4 at 10:01am, out at 104.25 at 10:06am. In again at 102.6 at 13:40pm, grew inpatient and emotionally distracted by the fluctuation around 102.45 to 102.6. Lots of thoughts go on and got out at 102.6 at 13:56, minutes before the reversal at 14:02.

Now I have:

AAPL call and put and shares

SINA shares

OVTI call and shares

ISRG shares

NYX shares

MR shares

Be patient, and stay unemotional.

Have some reasonings to justify the order and plan in term of money management and risk tolerance before entering every position is helpful to stay unemotional and patient.
Peter Lynch said "the key to be successful in the stock market is not to be scared out of it". This is a long long term adventure.
Keep going!

Starting to trade options

Bought Nov 100 FCX at 4.

Reason: Gold and copper have momentum before the Fed meeting. Dollar is gonna be weakening further. Bernarke's comment on trade surplus on Sep 11. Economy is supported by export and consumer spending, offsetting the slump in housing. Making dollar cheaper is advantageous for export. This trend is gonna continue for a while.
FCX is one of the leading companies in copper and gold producing.
Chart looks ok. There is a cross candlestick on the daily chart I bought the option (September 12). And the price is consolidating when it breaks 92 twice. It looks more like a continuation than a reversal.

Sold OVTI Sep 20 PUT at 0.6.
Reason: I am willing to pay 19.4 for OVTI shares.

Sold APPL Sep 150 call at 2.25.
To hedge the long-term APPL holding.

是到了认真检讨的时候了。

今天我在NMX又犯错误了。

JMBA

JMBA pre-ER run 2-3% profit 的计划没得逞，心一横，bet ER。得逞。 看好JMBA的原因，除了股版上的推荐和消费者的认可， 还有对最近一个季度有关它的新闻的分析。得出的结论是比较bullish。 在ER后早上出了。

Today's DT: 丢了西瓜，拣了芝麻。

Long ICE and then changed to MA.

About TNH

The first time I knew of TNH was from mitbbs when someone had a post "number one niu stock in nyse".
It is indeed kind of special for NYSE.

Position adjustment in last week

Bot JMBA at 10 for its ER play on Monday June 10th with a 2-3% profit target.
Bot MR at 28.8 for intermediate-term holding with stop loss of 27.36 (5% loss) or 26.72 (previous low and 7% loss) and profit target of 33.12 (15% profit).
Sold AAPL at 125.2 for 30% profit (cost 96.1).
Sold of GLD at 66.35 for a 1.8% loss (cost 67.54).

强者恒强

今天指数下跌的情况下，强势股们依然脱颖而出。记有AAPL， GOOG， RIMM， CROX， AMZN。

傻张说过一句话，“do not trade what you hope to see, trade what you see.”，
What you see is what the market is doing。And the market cannot care less who you are, what you think, predict, or hope.

But it is so easier said than done. First, you need to observe, see, and understand what the market is doing. Then you change your mindset, discard your fears and hopes, to follow it.

It is gonna take time and experience. But successful traders must make the change and find the way.

As I was cheering for the big advances of AAPL, CROX, GOOG, AMZN in the early morning, the market was sliding down and finally closed at almost a panic status with Dow down 198.94 points (1.48%) to close at 13,266.73 with above big volume. That is 401.38 points (2.94%) down from Dow's June 1 closing price of 13,668.11.
Nasdaq 45.8 points (1.78%) down to 2,541.38. S&P down 25.07 to 1,492.10. S&P down to close at 1490.72. Finally the big sell off dragged down these "strong" stocks.

Even DT needs patience

ICE was forming a potential cup-and-handle pattern in the past three months or so.
Today's DT was ICE.
I can only get to my office and open my trade station at 10am eastern time. So I missed the open-range-breakout.
In at 146.5, with plan to exit at 148.6 and cut loss at 145.8 with a reward/risk of 3/1 (2.1/0.7), but got impatient during the consolidation, abandoned the plan and got out at 147.8. Sigh.

处处留心皆是钱

上周末的报纸周四晚上才拿来看，发现两个有意思的文章，一个是默多克收购DJ的前景猜测。有分析家说"I will not bet against him"，"I will be shocked if he walks away". 有分析家说，"He will walk away in several weeks", 其实结合图来看，一清二楚。WS is betting for Mudorch. 再一个是中国人口问题的老龄话给美国医疗器械出口经销商和医疗服务行业带来的巨大商机。那我就想到了MR。
DJ和MR今天发彪。

偶有个问题很严重。

就是不善于在PULL BACK的时候RELOAD或者加仓。以前卖了就了，把老相好丢到南山了，(比如PCP at 99, 比如FCX at 72)，现在稍微进步一点，想做波段，可是还是掌握不好，就说这次的MR吧，29上下来PULL BACK到26.3，我的26的单子挂在那里没FILL，然后应该加价的。还是贪啊。想着回26甚至25再搞。以为那里是原阻力位，新支持位，MM不给机会的。炒股要见机行事。不能太教条。

Keep it simple.

今天看到ROBIN辛勤研究FA出的美好结果，其实也实在不算意外，因为他对这个领域技术面很了解。而且大半年跟踪了解分析。简直可以算insider了。那么如果对专业性行业不了解呢？或者想偷点懒，不那么辛苦去发掘HCL，怎么办？股版老大象神仙一样逍遥，人家说，要keep it simple.
偶要把有限的美刀，投到最好的股票上去。Keep it simple。那么哪些是最好的呢？简单点，最能涨的，或者叫最牛的。复杂一点，market leaders in the leading industries in the bull market rally. 缺一不可。

今天OVTI太精彩了

From TA说, 和NVEC ER前的表现以及set up如出一辄。
昨天甚至今天早晨 less than 15进，到今天收盘前16出，6%~8%的利润。为sure money 。

Somehow, it was halted at 16.20 at 3:50pm. Weird.

Checked Yahoo Finance and found out ER news at 3:55. So MMs should know it even earlier. Without such information, then I should say 14.8x to 15.7x is sure money.

有意思的是今天这么个大关头，在ER前夕，8点多一大早，出来个New rating,
然后forbes马上报导了这哥们的"新"rating。

NEW YORK, May 31 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Robert W Baird maintain their "underperform" rating on OmniVision Technologies Inc (OVTI.NAS). The target price has been reduced from $10 to $8. In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company’s quarterly results, scheduled to be reported today, and guidance are likely to be adversely impacted by Motorola's continued weakness and excess stockpiles of CMOS image sensors. Although OmniVision Technologies’ 1.3mp camera module shipments into notebooks have been higher than expected, only marginally offsetting the weakness in the company’s mobile phone business, the analysts say. OmniVision Technologies continues to witness pricing pressure, Robert W Baird adds.

也够急的，三月份才rate过，怎么说也得等到人家ER后再看看啊。

NEW YORK, March 2 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Robert W Baird reiterate their "underperform" rating on OmniVision Technologies Inc (OVTI.NAS), while reducing their estimates for the company. The target price has been reduced from $10 to $8.In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company has reported its F3Q07 pro forma EPS in-line with the guidance. OmniVision Technologies has announced its revenue and pro forma EPS guidance for F4Q07 at $100-$110 million and $(0.06)-$0.02, respectively, short of the estimates. The company may find it challenging to return to profitability, since it has missed the 1.3 and 2mp product cycles in mobile phones and its fabless model is not appropriate for competing against Samsung and Micron, the analysts say. The EPS estimate for 2007 has been reduced from $0.63 to $0.56.

有意思的是今天MM狂卖PUT。还有意思的是CEO星期二卖了10k股at 15.02, AP, Forbes报导。Shares shorted increase to 20.2M this months from 19M last month. Shares shorted even increased 6% yesterday. Shares shorted now is about 36.78% of float and take 9 days to cover. 92.43% shares are held by 408 institutions in MRQ.

What is my take? The market is full of craps. Again, nothing is so obvious. Do not easily be fooled and swung by the noises. Do your due diligence on foundamentals to maintain an independent and strong mind.

附图两张。希望记住这个例子。

Follow-up. Again, nothing is so obvious. When retail investors are expecting short squeeze, it is unlikely to happen so easily. Revenues coming from trading in the big investment banks have increased dramatically in the past few years. This is a multi-billion dollar business. Behind each and every one stock, there are big MMs and small MMs. Just live with it.

Bullish Chinese ADRs

BIDU, MR, FMCN, EDU
These stocks stand out. What they have in common? We can list the following criteria:
1. All had increasing most recent quarterly earnings and revenues.
2. Industry leader in their fields in China with substantial market share and extensive market penetration.
3. Profit margins are high in the industry. ROEs are high.
4. Have good management team.
Nothing really fancy.
I owned each and every one of them at some point of time. But why I could not own them for long? To make matters worse, I shorted all of them except for MR. I did not gain much from the shorting either.

Change in S&P 100, 500

In addition to WFR, S&P announced today that AAPL will join its S&P 100 index of big blue-chip companies (.OEX). And PCP will join S&P 500 (.SPX). Shares of new additions to S&P 500 often rise because funds tracking the index are required to buy stocks that enter it. PCP has risen 9% above the buy point after breaking out of the cup-and-handle at 110 about 2 weeks ago.

ETFs of my interest and 6 months % change:
Powershares Dyn Bd & Cor PKB 24.7%
Market Vectors Steel Fund SLX 42.2%
iShares S&P Latin Am 40 ILF 29.7%

Nothing is so obvious

以前我在买卖提上经常看到庄家阴谋论，还挺不以为然。其实还是很有这么回事儿的，别的不说，光看OE日前几日股价的变化就可窥一斑。对冲基金，共同基金有自身的商业利益，自然会在允许范围能使手段使利润最大化。这也是情理之中，今天股市的走势，也是一个很好的例子，大幅低开走高，所以作为散户要有勇有谋自己拿主意。
目前市场的主题好象是“money is very available, economy is not that bad, interest might be cut”。

今天收盘前进了WFR， CROX。WFR shake得厉害。不设STOP了。WFR加入S&P 500，FUND是要买，平均交易量是6.33M，他们不会一天两天买完，6月份期指到期也快了，所以WFR在
接下来一个月内需求应该比供给多。再加上前一段的ER后的correction，向上的空间比向下的大。
CROX new high, IBD pump. Street pump. New product lines. High profit margin, high ROE in footwear industry. Accelarating earning growth.
On May 4th, CROX reported ER with "unbelievable strong sales", share jumped 19.95% to 68.85 from the closing price of 57.4 on May 3rd. Since then, CROX had about 40% run-up within the 3 weeks following the break out. According to O'Neil's principle, this kind of stock can be held for 8 weeks more. This is a living example of O'Neil's "buy high, sell higher" principle. I even shorted it several times along the way for small gains. Finally got burned today and decided to follow the trend.

另，一定要减少DT，因为没有金刚钻，不揽瓷器活。

Looking back 7 Months

Maintaining your portfolio is just like caring for your garden. You want to keep your good plant longer to let it grow and get rid of the weed as soon as possible.

My number 1 mistake in the past 7 months in the market is to keep the weed and cut the beautiful flowers in my garden. That is why I had a 40% loss in FFHL, and 10% profit (90-99) in PCP while I could have 30% (90-118) profit if I had kept it 8 weeks longer. And PCP is still not at the top yet by today. Determing the good selling point for profit taking is hard. But the least I can do is that I should never ever have a long term loss again.

My number 2 mistake is the blindness in entering a position without considering where the stock price is at right here right now. Where is the support? Where is the resistence? Is it overbought or oversold? What is my target price on the upside? What is my stop loss price? How much is the risk/reward ratio? Is it a short term swing trade or intermediate long term holding?
Finally, Do I really know and understand the story of the company?
All of these need to be carefully considered.

My number 3 mistake is my fear of loading stock at sound support point. Everytime I saw NMX touches 118, I wanted to load but I never did. Why? I think I have my fear factor for this one since I cut loss at exactly 118 (got it on IPO day for 150 when I was a fresh fresh newbie and cut loss at 118 because I did not want a divorce because of this). I also learned to respect resistence. That is why MR retreats from 29 and FMCN could not stand above 45 for too long.

My number 4 mistake is my poor money management skill. I once had over 14 positions. What a mess! Now I gradually learned to put my eggs into a few baskets and took good care of them. I shall have no more than 8 positions. Ideally, I would like to have 5 or 6 positions with each taking 15-20% of my trading capitals.

May 23, Wedensday, 2007

Market is having a rally today led by basic materials. AMZN is strong, almost assuming leadership in nasdaq recently.

Sell off began in the afternoon session after a stalling phase failing to attack 2600, triggered by Greenspan's comment about Chinese stock market. AMZN had quite a show today.

Cleared margin, raised cash and sold MR at 28.2, and FMCN at 42.9.

I am still frustrated about my skills in setting appropriate selling rules and sticking to them. I sold MR and FMCN because I was fearful of the market consolidation and wanted to lock my gains, not because I changed my views of their foundamentals.

Take care of my garden

List of my positions. I am thinking about selling GLD at 3% loss.

Ticker Cost Today's Close Change Percent
HNR 10.01 9.63 -3.80%
GLD 67.54 65.22 -3.44%
RS 61.8 60.38 -2.30%
OVTI 13.6 14.65 7.72%
FDG 26.08 28.77 10.31%
PTR 117.7 129.85 10.32%
FMCN 38.45 43.46 13.03%
MR 25.23 29.03 15.06%
AAPL 96.1 113.54 18.15%

ETF vs Mutual Funds

I have some extra money that I want to invest into the stock market for long term, really long term, like >30 years. Read some articles on Motley's Fool comparing ETFs and Mutual Funds. http://www.fool.com/etf/etf.htm
I am inclined to invest into ETFs. But still unclear about the tax implications. The article said that MF is less tax efficient, but I do not see how.

Market news of my interest

Hologic to acquire Cytyc for 6.2B, HOLX share down 6.32% to 53.96 intraday, CYTC up 22.28% to 42.86 intraday.
这个新闻写下来了，可是晚上在想别的事，没多想这个的，结果今天CERN就新高了，to 60。8% jump。
要好好了解行业公司间的相关性。觉得这是short-term trading的重要skill。要能想到 Company A trades with company B. Company B trades with company C, etc...

今天CERN跳高的原因是“GE and McKesson are the rumored bidders for Cerner“， 这个kansas city local的报纸说是bloomberg报告的，可是我在bloomberg野没有找到。就当有这个rumor吧。GE要用卖plastics unit了的钱买啥呢？各种猜测满天飞，早在一月12日的新闻就提到”GE may use proceeds from selling its plastics unit to buy health-care technology developers as well as energy services and equipment makers to tap faster-growing markets. “。 Health-care IT 近年增长比较快 (double digit growth industry)，GE最近3，4年在 health-care IT上的revenue probably more than doubled to $1.7 billion in 2006 from $800 million in 2003. 而GE Healthcare, which includes the world's biggest maker of medical imaging machines, reported about $17 billion in revenue for 2006. 在一月12日市场猜测的时候，CERN拒绝评论。Share jumped 5% to close at 46.88 on 01/12. 其实GE今年以来忙着已经买了不少东西了，part of Abbott's diagnostic-equipment unit for 8.12B, Smiths Group Plc's aerospace unit for $4.8 billion, drilling- equipment maker Vetco Gray Inc. for $1.9 billion and a real estate property fund in Germany for $546 million. 昨天呢，GE的plastic unit卖了好价钱了，Saudi Basic, or Sabic, will pay 11.6 B的cash (GE原来想卖10B的)。GE said ”it will have a gain of $1.5 billion, or about 15 cents a share. Sale proceeds will be used to increase the GE buyback this year by as much as $2 billion to as much as $8 billion and fund previously announced restructuring.“。结果今天市场就rumor要买CERN。
那么到底会不会买CERN呢，我觉得不大能成。CERN现在的市值是4.66B，加上573M的债务，大概至少得 >5.5B才能 拿下来。更重要的是，好象对GE没有特别的好处啊，CERN的产品看上去GE也有的差不离了。唯一的解释是GE想扩大市场占有律，抢CERN的2500多现有用户。那犯得着动这么大肝火吗。CERN是CEO Neal Patterson一手创建的，从90年的4，5毛 (adjusted price)到今天的58.8，年仅57岁，不会就想退休吧。所以我觉得这个rumor就是rumor。没有实质意义, CERN在现在这个价位我不会买就是了。
市场很八卦。追高要谨慎。

Do not trade unless I feel comfortable.

So that I can know what I am doing.

FMCN ER Review

Posted Q1 revenue 58.1 million, up 75% from 33.1 million a year ago. Net profit 16.3 million (73.4% increase), 15c/share(50% increase, shares dilluted), compared with 9.4 million, 10c/share year ago. Excluding one-time items, profit would have been 22.7 million, or 21c/share.
Analysts' forecasts were 14c/share. Excluding stock option expenses and one-time items, analysts had predicted 19c/share (18c to 20c).
(note: This is the fifth time in a row that FMCN has beaten estimates. Stock option expenses are hei ah, eat one more penny per share than estimated ah)

Outlook:
Expects revenue for the Q2 in a range from $103 million to $107 million, excluding $9 million in sales taxes. Analysts were looking for revenue of $90.3 million, on average, with forecasts ranging from $77.0 million to $97.9 million.
Q2 net income, excluding stock-option expenses and one-time items, is expected to range from $40 million and $41 million, or 34 cents to 35 cents per fully diluted ADS. Analysts were looking for 34 cents per share (yahoo finance polled 0.30 to 0.35).

The CC had lots of questions. Most of them were well answered. I am pleased to hear that they are very confident about being the profit leader in the industry. Their old core business (commercial location network) is dominating the market, which is where the seanonality comes from according to them. The newly expanded areas have lower profit margin but still "envied" by the competitors in the segments. That is why the overall gross margin (28%) actually goes down a little bit compared with last year (28.4%). And they stressed this. They are having good business synergy with the newly acquired Allyes.
The last question in the CC was tough. Analyst questioned whether this q1 is more seasonal than q1 2006 since he sees the drop in plots sold q2q this year than q2q last year even with the discount pricing, and whether the "demand was really as strong as we were guided to expect it to be?" The company seemed to be annoyed and the reply was not as professional as I would like to hear. "I don't know where you are trying to get at in your analysis." What?? You'd better figure out.

Overall, a good quarter and good forecast. If not for OE, I think the stock should go up >3%. But with OE, I am not sure.

Gold, gold, where will you go?

Gold future for June dropped 1.9% to close at $661.50, a two months low today.

I have a small position of GLD (36 shares) acquired at 67.54 a week ago. It is down (2.87%) till today.

Watched two videos from thestreets.com - the right reason to buy gold and the wrong reasons to buy gold.

The right reason to buy gold should be to hedge the uncertainty (not risk) in market, for example, catastrophic event. It is like buying a life insurance. You do not withdraw it.

The wrong reason to buy gold is to speculate a bullish trend boosted by buying from govenment central banks or weaker dollars.

en, I will think about whether I want a life insurance in the market or whether gold really can provide the life insurance.

Anyway, it still looks like a healthy pull back and I will not be particularly concerned if GLD does not penetrate 200 EMA (about 63.3) and close lower than previous low at 63. Then that will signal a sell signal with about 6% loss.

However, I might get rid of GLD earlier because I think there are better investment opportunities out there. For example, DJI.

Today's Trade

Bot SNP at 104.68 at 12.48, SLD at 105.10 45 minutes later.

SNP closed at 105.63, near day's high. Made new life-time high. The biggest oil refiner in china by capacity has been strong in recent sessions since May 11 when stock jumped from 92.5 to 100 driven by the news.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/china-may-gradually-give-up/story.aspx?guid=%7B94AEB620-590C-4AB3-90C4-70273A95D78B%7D
This is an example of momentum brought by news on stock's short-term movement. When stock jumped more than 8% last Friday on huge volume, it is OK to buy at market close near new high. Market often cannot absorb the impact of good news or bad news in one session.

As for today, I entered the trade near new high at 104.68 soon after noon and saw the red bar immediately after my entry. That made me a little bit uneasy feeling I have bought at almost the highest point ever. I set the stop to be 104.3. But I was soon assured because if there is hesitation but no drop on big volume, then this is probably not likely to be the top. Stock resumed the uptrend after the 15 minutes pause.
A little bit imagination of how the chart will fold out is necessary for an intraday chart reader. This may be relatively easier if there is a support or resistence on the charts in longer time scale (2 weeks, 3 months and 6 month). But in case of new high (no resistence) and new low (no support), well, I think psychology plays an even bigger role. Hope I will get better at it when I gain more experience in the market.

Industry spotlight -- Metal stocks

"...metal stocks keep rising as aircraft orders and construction of power plants, hotels and hospitals continue to fuel demand for scrap, processed and fabricated metal products." "Most economists expect this trend to continue. Plans to expand manufacturing capacity and power generation depend on 10- to 15-year forecasts, rather than blips in durable goods orders and short-term economic trends. Many industries are in catch-up mode."
It seems this industrial construction trend is still going on across the globe, hence, underpinning the bullish tone of global economy for 2007.
Some related stocks in the supply to production chain include:
ACH, chinese company in bauxite mining, alumina refining and aluminum smelting.
BA, commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, space flight, launch system and services. (my bus gets by the company headquarter. The employees are soooo well dressed. There is often a beggar in front of the building who makes good income :))
BW, makes an alloy of copper and beryllium used to manufacture drills to reach deep sea deposits of oil and gas.
CAT, construction, mining and forestry machinery, engines
CENX, aluminum processing
MM, metals recyclers (when pure steel is too expensive, steel fabricators use more recycled scrap metals).
HSC, provides industrial services and products to steel, construction, railways, and energy industries.
PCP, manufacture of metal components and products; and the provision of investment castings, forgings, and fasteners/fastener systems for aerospace and industrial gas turbine. (as I write, I am dismayed to find out the stock has just made new life time high today. So I watched this one run from 65 when I entered the market in October last year to 115 today, nonstop. Once held it from 90 to 98. Ahh!)
RS, metal processing, (stainless steel, tubing, titanium, etc...)
ROLL, fabricate metals, roll steel bars into ball bearings
FDG, provide coke coal to steel producer

Added MR, RS

Added MR AH yesterday at 25.23,
Set a limit buy of RS at yesterday's closing price of 61.8 last night and got filled today.

Current portfolio: stocks 85.8%, cash 8.3%, mutual funds 5.8% .
Stock positions:
AAPL
FDG
FMCN
HNR
GLD
MR
OVTI
PTR
RS

Mind, Method, Money Management (1)

In addition to finding the appropriate level of risk tolerance of myself and planning accordingly, a healthy and strong mind requires one to:
1. Be calm and unemotional so that you can have a plan.
2. Be brave and patient so that you can execute your plan.
Ultimately,
3. "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful".

FFHL, the one stock that I cut loss at 40%

I have lots of thoughts on FFHL ever since last Friday, when the stock went down from 9.1 to 7.1. The ER came out during the session and missed expectation (profit down).

The stock was brought to my attention when it made an astounding run following its impressive IPO on Dec 19, 2006 (from 8 to 18.4 in 7 sessions). I still remember all the speculations on the Internet, mainly from Google finance: "this one is gonna be the next EFUT", well, what happened with EFUT was no coincidence. "The new China plastics Fuwei Films FFHL got score of 96.2 at the Motley Fool with a 111.14% return to date. ", "I picked this up today and think China will be a huge player in LCD screens. This offering will allow Fuwei Films to have one of the most modern manufacturing plants in the world today.") Anyway, I day traded the stocks several time in those days and made some small profits (3%, 5%, etc...). The stock was totally a monster and a newbie like me got all excited buying high selling higher. Not surprisingly, my final round in this festival turned out to be a one way trip when I had to keep 300 stocks bought at an average price of 17.9 after I cannot sell them at a profit (point A). Hehe. Mistake number 1: Day trading turns into an intermediate holding, yet I had no knowledge of the company.

It did not take me long to realize that I made a mistake. Boy, did I try to correct it! I was determined to get out even. How? Day in and day out, I watched this guy hoping the MM behind this one came to a rescue. I did catch the chance, bought at 10.xx and sold at 11.xx (point B to C). And reduced my holdings to 200 shares. But that was like playing fire and I was extremely nervous. I dare not buy too much for the short-term profit and I dare not short it for the fear of the crazy run returns for no reason. Meanwhile, I did my due dilligence searching Chinese Internet to find whatever information I could use to get a sense of how they are doing to deliver their promises. My conclusion was quite pessimistic. I had three reasons: 1. Management team was not credible. Actually, very incredible. 2. Competition is too tough. They are not really cutting edge as they claim to be (which can be seen from the long list of plastic factories and their products and the company's job posting of hiring workers for 500 yuan/month. 3. Huge debt is due soon. No development on the term negotiation with bank. And I began to really hate it and cleared my positions at 10.8 the day before Feburary 27 (point D) . Mistake number 2: Count on the MM's manipulation is really short-sighted. You may succeed once or twice, if you are lucky. But it is not worthy of it considering the risk and the huge psychological burden. Do pay attention to foundamentals and trust the foundamentals will win in the long run.

Must write it down because I sure need to remember it. I sure wish this would be the last time in my investing life that I cut loss at 40%!

Ai ya ya, what a day.

I just said "there was no sign of reversal" yesterday. See what happens today.

Acount down 1.7% today.

Under my close monitoring is the newly opened position FDG (at 26.08).

FDG had shown support at 10 day moving average 25.3 from intraday chart.

FMCN is the one of the few that is still green today. Up 1.19 (3.21%). FMCN reports ER BH on May 17, 2007. I do expect a good ER despite the high expectation. This one a long-term holding unless it drops below the 33.4 support.

Another long-term holding AAPL holds through, closing green at 107.34 after reaching 52-week high of 108.84 today.

Commodity went down with stock. My GLD is down. Instead of re-testing the 700 resilience, GOLD retreat to 667, down 15.5.

No more word, add one pic.

Sold JMBA

at 8.84, when the trend reversal was not confirmed.
Be very cautious and keep sideline in the market.
Seems the steam has run out and a consolidation lasting longer is needed.
Retail same store sale was bad, showing low consumer confidence. Earning season is heading to an end.

Life is what one wants in one's soul.

By D.H. Lawrence.

Today's transaction: bought FDG

The market is incredibly strong when everybody is expecting a correction. Coal company JRCC posted better than expected ER and give good guidance. Steel industry holds well in this morning's bad weather.
Bought 200 shares of FDG at 26.08 in the last trading hour.
If it goes above 27, will add 200 shares.
Target price: 29.21.
On the down side, cut loss if it closes 50cents below today's 10-day EMA 25.32-0.50=24.82.

Nightly readings on FDG

Robin has recommended coal stock for the summer based on the rationale of increased demand from utility surge. FDG looks attractive from a glance: high profit margin, high ROI, and high yield, high yoy growth. Revenue and profit exploded in 2004 and 2005 but started to slow in 2006. Recent earnings in the last reporting quarter is not good either. But the response to its recent ER has been very good. So it must not be off from the expectation. And the president just said "Fording to increase shipping to make up for Q1 delay. "

Searching from IBD archive rendered two interesting articles.

First one is published on 3/1/2004, when the stock was traded at 10.

"Fording Canadian Coal Trust is the No. 2 player in the coking coal industry. Coking coal forms the substance known as coke. Mix coke with iron ore and limestone in a blast furnace, and you've got steel. ....Higher demand has led to higher prices, and heady gains for Fording's bottom line and its stock. "Coking coal had been in oversupply in global markets for a couple of decades, until about 2000, 2001," said Mark Gow, Fording's director of investor relations. "Then the supply side adjusted and markets became reasonably well balanced."Now, China's creating demand by becoming a net importer of coking coal," he said.

Article no. 2: 5/5/2005, when the stock was traded at 24.

"...Fording mines mostly metallurgical coal that goes into steel-producing blast furnaces. In the steel business, the big market is Asia-Pacific. Fording sells 45% of its production to Asian markets. While only 8% of its exports go to China, the country is the main factor in the worldwide run-up in demand. That demand has seen the world price of coal more than double since 2004. Metallurgical coal went from $56 to $57 a metric ton in 2004 to $120 to $125 today. Analyst sees coal prices falling to $95 a ton in 2006 and $70 in 2007. .... The company hedges on currency to offset the problem. Fording forged a five-year deal with Canadian Pacific Railway. The deal took effect in April 2004, removes uncertainty regarding rates and provides sufficient rail capacity to handle expansion plans at the Elk Valley Mines. Fording pays hefty sums for that security. Rail rates for 2004 were 20% higher than the prior year. Rates for 2005 and 2006 will be 60% higher than 2003, while rates for 2007 and 2008 will be tied to the price of coal. While transportation is always a concern, there are no bottlenecks right now. "

So what is my take on this stock on 05/07/2007?

Based on report released by DOE on March 23, 2007 for Q4, 2006, average price of U.S. Metallurgical Coal Exports is about 92 to Asia, 95 to Europe. So the price decreased but still not too bad.

1. Steel industry is performing very strong recently and positioned to do so for the rest of the year due to global economy growth. (Iron & Steel index up 25.67% vs 6.42% of S&P 500 YTD). The demand seems strong in year 2007. FDG is up 26.7% YTD. It correlates well with iron and steel industry.

2. Less volatile than smaller miners. No 2 player in coke coal industry. Higher profit margin and higher ROI.

3. Good management team (Hedge currency. Contract rail rates).

4. Chart support.

FDG seems to be at the upper side of the trend line at current price of 26.2. I will definitely be a buyer of FDG anywhere in 24-25 for 2-4 months holding.

Position adjustment recently

Short term stocks:

Sold all 500 shares MPEL at 17.90 last Thursday when LVS's ER failed the hope of lucrative gambling business in Macau. My MPEL shares were accumulated three times at 15.88, 16.45, and 18.10. Did not sell when the stock went above 19.00. Should've taken the >10% profit partially earlier.

Last Friday, Sold half position in OVTI at 15.05 (took 10% profit).

Last Friday, cut loss on SBUX (-3%) and bought in JMBA at 8.77 since I buy in the seasonality story and loved the chart after I see a hammer in place for that day following the prolonged downtrend.

Today, cut loss on IBKR, sold all 100 shares at 29.75 (-8% loss). GROW reported ER today, lower profit Q2Q. Investing services stocks took a hit. This is the second time I got hurt from chasing hot IPOs. Last time it was NMX at 150. Ouch!!! Ouch!!!

I still have a loser FMCN (-5% down) in my short term holdings.

Short-term holdings include:
OVTI, FMCN, FCX, JMBA

Intermediate to Long term stocks:

Sold IWS at 160.6 today (cost 153, 5% gain). Plan to buy back around 155-156 depending on the market condition. I am trying to time the market here.
Tentatively bought HNR at 10.01 with the proceeds. Will average up if it goes north. Will cut loss if it goes below 9.5. The risk/reward ratio seems ok here.

Now my intermediate-long term stocks include:
AAPL at 96.1
GLD at 67.5,
PTR at 117.71
HNR at 10.01

Mind, Method, Money Management

Kittybaby's LG fox97 said trading/investing is all about Mind, Method, and Money Management.

Let me reflect upon these three M's with my 7 months experience in the market.
As a beginner investor, I believe I have a long way to go to develop a calm and strong mind in investing. It did not take me long to figure out that I am a moderately aggressive investor. This means I am ready to tolerate the 3-5% loss for a large-cap value stock and 8%-10% downside risk for a mid-cap growth stock. And I am prepared for the 15%-20% down to my overall portfolio, which already happened last month. Although I felt very sad about the loss, I made my choice to stay invested because I believe in the long term benefit of investing in stocks and I believe winners never quit.

pre-ER runs

Traded LVS for its pre-ER run.
Entered at 86.30 May 1 with stop limit 84.90 with a target at about 87.8-88. The stock failed to rally Tuesday but you could feel it held on. Plus the big market is making a brisk turn around. Held overnight. It had a run Wedensday. Sold at 87.50 to realize 1.4% gain. Exit point was early. Staring at the bid and ask price makes me nervous. Patience ah patience.
MPEL was also up today to reflect speculation on Macau gambling industry.

NVEC is another example of pre-ER run.

Stocks in a group move together, for whatever reason

I have NYT on my watch and was alerted of the abnormal price jump this morning. I checked news for NYT immediately and could not figure out why. The volume was so high that I could not resist the temptation guessing there maybe significant news, most likely M&A. I jumped in for a quick profit. No surprise, it turned out to be an emotional and reckless trade. My entry point (25.8) is again too high too late. The risk/reward ratio is way too high. I cut loss at 25.3 and shorted the same amount of position there. Covered at 24.75 to break even.
Lesson learned? Always, always think about the risk/reward ratio before acting. If I have missed the best entry point, let it go.

I later learned that sudden rise in NYT is due to the following news that is on today's headlines:
Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. offered to buy Dow Jones & Co. for $5 billion, The offer of $60 per share represents a huge premium of about 65 percent over Dow Jones' closing share price on Monday.

Yet another powerful example of how stocks move in groups.

Today's trade -- BIDU

I had fun today day trading BIDU and felt I learned a little bit. I shall write more about this later today.

BIDU had a good ER Thursday after market close (beat estimate in revenue and profit). Shares advanced as much as more than 20% after close (109.37 to 131.xx). It gapped up Friday morning with an open price of 130.42 and went up to as high as 132.8 in the first hour of trading. But it was overdone. Based on the historic price movement before/after ER for this one, I just don't think that it will stay above 125 for too long or to make a new 52-week high this fast. This is my number 1 reason. My number 2 reason is observation from the post-ER price movement from AAPL and GOOG. They had some similarities with BIDU. One may argue that AMZN run crazy after its ER. But I think AMZN is not comparable with BIDU because (1) BIDU does not have a high short ratio as AMZN does so a short squeeze is unlikely. (2) it is obvious from the graph after the first half hour that they are not alike. (3) different business and different expectation.
Thirdly, the big market is so different from several months ago. It is over-extended and much more careful. The days are gone for a crazy price movement to the upside for a Chinese Internet ADR.

I shorted it once it is confirmed to go down without even thinking of setting up a stop limit on the upside to cut loss in case it goes against me. To be safe, I did not use margin for this trade. Looking back the chart, I feel so sorry for my poor DT skills. But I endured the rebound in the early afternoon session and managed to make a 2% gain thanks to the reasoning and a little bit planning.

Patience is a virtue of good investors

For so many times, I hear people and myself complaining and crying over the spilled milk, the inertia of our holdings, taking profit too quickly, and cutting loss just before the turnning point.

But patience is a virtue for all the good investors. The term investor is so different from the term trader. Traders only care about the momentum in a day or several days to several weeks. Investors normally have a much longer time horizon.

I am constantly questioning myself. Am I an investor or a trader? Do I want to be an investor or a trader? I think I must make clear of this so that I could deal with the short term volatility with calm and patience.

Take TCM for example, I bought at 9.98 a while ago. The newly IPOed Chinese medicine stock went down to as low as 9.21 after my purchase, making a paper loss of 7.7%. But does this matter if I believe it is a fairly valued stock? However, my patience runs out before the dawn came, I set a sell limit of 9.98 to get out even. This morning, analyst initiated coverage and rated the stock "sector outperform" and the stock went up to 10.05 instantly. My shares are gone leaving me with yet another lesson of the importance of being patient. Well, the positive thing is that I did not cut loss early this time, right?

April 25, 2007, Wedensday

The bull had its moment today when Dow closed above 13000. I missed the opportunity in the morning to load HSC at the 49.7-50 range, even though I saw the rebound signal and realized it is very likely to go up considering the very bullish big market. My fear was based on the yesterday's big volume drop from 51 to 50. The stock went up to 51.4 for more than 2% gain for today.

DT, April 24, 2007, Tuesday

BIDU has a pre-ER run today. I think this is quite predictable as speculators come on board to bet for the volatility around this ER. GOOG's ER definitely has some influence on BIDU as people are expecting a good ER from BIDU too. For DTders, it is not hard to spot this one if it is on their watch list.

SINA has a high correlation with BIDU, so I checked SINA too. From the intraday chart, the turn around signal at $32.05 is quite clear. However, SINA lost the momentum in the afternoon. I have been watching SINA for a while trying to find an entry point for swing trade. I am not convinced as a buyer for SINA at its closing price of $32.34 since the downtrend seems in place for this one.

April 24, 2007, Tuesday

TXI, IBM reported ER, stocks up. Semiconductor and technology sector picks up with the leadership.
As I was trying to build my intermediate holding position gradually, I added 100 share of OVTI today at $13.93 after seeing the big green bar of buying activity. Turned out to be a bad entry point as the price went down from there and closed in red at $13.56. Once again, I feel it is better to load at the last half hour of the trading hour if I plan to hold this for some time.
Now I have 400 shares of OVTI with an average cost of $13.50. Hmm.

ok, this is it.

From this day on, I shall record every action and reflect upon it at this blog. I need to keep honest so that I could learn from my mistakes, for which I have paid about 18% of my trading capital in the past six months since I opened my trading account (50k to 41k). Don't know if that is normal or not for a newbie. But I really felt frustrated, especially when I looked at the index over the past six months. I was beaten down like a dog.

My first goal for the remainder of this year is not to lose anymore. Yes, not to lose anymore.